11 Candidates for the Next Era of Technology
Following the scientific revolution in the 1600’s and 1700’s, the industrial revolution of the 1700’s and 1800’s, the information age and computer revolution of 1900’s, the next era of technology has yet to be clearly defined. The leading candidates for the next era of technology are: big data, quantum computing, augmented and artificial reality, robotics, artificial intelligence (machine learning, analytics), the internet of things (expanded Bluetooth), biotechnology/genetics revolution, 3-D printing especially on nanoscale, sensing and mobility with autonomous vehicles. bio metrics, and nanomaterials.
1) Big Data
Examples of big data include: establishing consumer shopping habits then advertising based on predicted future buying, monitoring health status using wearables which give continuous bio metrics, crime forecasting using population data, television viewing preferences based on past viewings, weather forecasting using worldwide satellite data, personalized health care treatments from multiple coalesced diagnoses, drug interaction predictions for patients on multiple medications, live road mapping for autonomous vehicles.
Business uses big data to predict customer behavior by analysis of social media, GPS-enabled devices, and closed circuit television devices. Other sources of big data include: emails, PDFs. photos, videos, audios, , bio metrics, SM posts, and more. Big data allows for better customer retention from insurance companies. Data is structured, semi structured, or unstructured. Big data allows for greater accuracy, precision, efficiency, and responsibility in the use of data. Big data leads to faster iterative learning: faster failing, faster success, smarter decisions. Unlike many other candidates for the next Era of technology, big data is already here with innumerable applications. Search engines such as Google are commonplace devices uses by billions to wade through our exploding big data.
2) Quantum Computing
Rooted in the early 1980s when Paul Benioff proposed a quantum computer model, quantum computing uses quantum-mechanical phenomenon, including entanglement and superposition to solve problems. Importantly, quantum computing is different from classical computers in that the quantum-mechanical phenomenon allows bigger computations using more data with greater success at solutions. Quantum bits or qubits are units of information different from the standard bits of a classical computer. Qubits allow for uncertainty, a quantum state not present in the standard binary off-zero, on-one system of classical computers. However, quantum computers have certain technical challenges.
Low temperatures near absolute zero lead to greater computational accuracy.
Superconductivity at extremely low temperatures helps to create and maintain the quantum state. Because of these tremendous physical problems, a personal quantum computer is not likely possible. IBM is a world leader in research and development of quantum computers. In 2019, Google claimed for the first time that a quantum computer out performed a classical computer. This claim remains disputed. Solving encryption problems is one of the greatest strengths of quantum computing.
3) Biotechnology/Genetics
First, zinc finger nucleases were developed to edit DNA. Then, TALENs were developed. Then, CRISPR-Cas9 technology improved the ease and accuracy of DNA editing. Now, custom designed base editors have been developed for changing point mutations in a gene. Also, prime editors have been developed for the insertion of sections of genetic code. With the completion of Human Genome Project and the sequencing of numerous other laboratory subjects genomes, DNA hacking/editing has become a common reality. New molecular/DNA therapies for point mutation diseases, cancers, and a variety of metabolic conditions are becoming increasingly available. Vaccinations, sanitation, and antibiotics was effectively minimized most infectious diseases which were in 1850 the top 10 causes of mortality. Now none of the 10 top killers are infection. The Genetics Revolution will likely address the top 10 current causes of mortality removing them from the list over the next century. Healthcare is not the only area to affected by the genetics revolution. Improvements in agriculture with genetically improved crops, genetically improved livestock, and likely also genetically enhanced humans. Growth of in vitro fertilization and preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) will likely eliminate most cases of inherited disease as well as allow opportunities for genetic enhancement hopefully decreasing the burden of human suffering.
4) Augmented, Virtual, Mixed, and Extended Reality
Augmented reality is a composite image involving the superimposition of a computer generated image on the real world. Virtual,or artificial reality is a completely computer fabricated sensory environment. VR is an immersion experience whereas AR typically involves a small change with a superimposed image using a smartphone (Pokemon Go). Mixed reality , MR, involves combinations of VR and AR. Extended reality is the umbrella term involving all 3, AR, VR, and MR. Augmented reality is simpler and has more current real world applications. Augmented reality usually requires little more than a smart phone. Virtual reality typically requires a headset. Theoretically, any sensory experience can be augmented or replaced. Visual augmented and virtual reality is the dominant method of extended reality currently.
5) Robotics
Of the 9 candidates for the next era of technology, robotics seems perhaps the most obvious. Robots are widespread in science fiction. Unfortunately, robots require tremendously more advanced technology in terms of materials, sensing, mobility, machine learning, GPS technology, and autonomy before widespread use of robotics occurs. The Atlas humanoid robot from Boston Dynamics can run, jump, climb, and perform a perfect back flip. While most people have enough experience with the Jetsons, Star Wars, or Terminator to conceive the possibilities, the future of robotics is not yet here.
6) Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning
Of these 9 areas of technology, it is AI or artificial intelligence that generates the greatest buzz as the next era of technology. Machines that think are a quantum leap beyond the prior generations of machines which calculate and perform repetitive tasks. Important decision making has always been the exclusive realm of human brains. However, with the emergence of Watson from IBM as Jeopardy champion and chess champion, the dominance of human thinking is beginning to wane. The time when machines out think humans may be near but the dominance of AI is not yet here.
7) Internet of Things (Bluetooth and beyond)
The IoT or internet of things is the network communication between sensors and devices through the cloud. Computing devices connected with sensing devices, mechanical devices and digital machines. Already Bluetooth allows connection between smart phones and speakers, alarm clocks, headphones, home electronics, home appliances, car systems. The most obvious application of the internet of things is the smart home. Security systems, security cameras, lighting, thermostats, speakers, refrigerators, and televisions all can be interconnected with a smart phone. However, privacy and vulnerability to hackers remain significant concerns.
Experts consider IoT possibly the 4th industrial revolution.
The first industrial revolution was steam power and mechanization. The second industrial revolution was electrical energy and mass production/assembly line. The third industrial revolution was computers, electronics and automation. Finally, connectivity with the internet of things may be the fourth industrial revolution.
8) 3-D Printing or Additive Manufacturing
3-D printing is the creation of 3 dimensional objects by sequential deposition by a computerized device from a CAD model or digital 3-D model. One big advantage of 3-D printing is the ability to create objects with complex shapes, create hollow cavities, and make internal trusses. Fused deposition modeling is the most common form of 3-D printing in current use. Polymers are most commonly used for additive manufacturing but 3-D printing of metals and ceramics is common.
Nano 3-D printing allows for micro fabrication of electronics or micro optics.
Medical applications include human tissue replacements with 3-D printed titanium or ceramic materials. 3-D printed tissues have been created. Advantages of 3-D printing are: rapid prototyping, sturdy and lightweight parts, environmentally friendly, little waste of material, consistent quality, print on demand, and infinite geometry and shapes. Disadvantages of additive manufacturing are: limited part size, high cost of 3-D printers, limited materials, and production of dangerous materials such as firearms which can avoid detection.
9) Autonomous Vehicles
Sensing and mobility technology without a doubt will lead to more autonomous vehicles including: cars, trucks, ships, drones. Because autonomous vehicles require artificial intelligence, highly functioning computers are needed to make decisions based on sensor and GPS information. Five levels of autonomous vehicles have been described: Level 0 – no automation, Level 1 – driver assistance such as lane keep assist, Level 2 – partial automation, Level 3 – conditional automation such as self parking or automatic braking, Level 4 high automation, Level 5 – full automation. Autonomous vehicles will likely revolutionize transportation and commerce.
10) Biometrics
Biometrics are the physical and behavioral characteristics which define individuality such as finger prints, retina vascular pattern, facial features, or voice. In addition, less common biometrics include: ear pattern, palm vein pattern, electrocardiogram, electroencephalogram, or iris pattern. By far, the most accurate and exhaustive biometric is DNA. Not surprisingly, DNA is an increasingly common biometric. Currently, low end DNA scanner machines cost is around $1000 which allow match results in minutes.
Among the biometrics, facial recognition is the most controversial
due to questions of accuracy and privacy. Yet, facial recognition offers the potential for personalized advertising and marketing. Biometrics in the corporate world increases security, accuracy, and accountability, Industrial biometrics are cost effective, efficient and reliable. In government and law enforcement, data analyzed on large populations produces huge privacy concerns, significant error rates, and potential for abuse. With finger prints and palm scanners significant hygiene concerns exist. Also, persons with disabilities, blindness or amputations create problems. Bracelets and watches assess biometrics and record the data. Heart electrical rhythms, pulse, blood pressure, and blood oxygenation saturation are all measured with current wearables. In the future, the combination of fingerprint with electrocardiogram information for identification are potential biometrics.
11) Nanomaterials
Graphene, bucky balls, nanotubes represent 3 forms of carbon based nanomaterials. Graphene is predicted to do to the 21st century what plastics did to the 20th century as a material. Properities of graphene:
- light weight – one atom thick
- strong – strongest material yet discovered many times stronger than Kevlar
- electrical conduction – 100x faster conduction than silicon, 13x better than copper
- transparent absorbing only 2.2 % of light
- impermeable as membrane
- high surface area for weight
- stiffness similar to diamond
- extremely high thermal conductivity
- elastic
Next Era of Technology?
The next era of technology depends on how far we look ahead. In the near future, big data wins, since big data is the most dominant candidate technology in the world today. Search engines such as Google are necessary to sort through the vast sea of data to find answers. Because data continues to grow exponentially, the uses for all this data will likely only continue to increase exponentially as well. In 10-20 years, biotechnology and the genetics revolution seem likely to be the dominant force in technology well into this century. Further, looking beyond 20-30 years, artificial intelligence is the likely to increasingly power technology change.
